Box Cup XVIII Week 4 MNF Preview

So tonight's MNF game, Bengals at Steelers, includes a surprising number of players spread across all the teams which will affect the winners this week. It's a pivotal game so I figured I'd use it as an excuse to send a season update and MNF preview.

Quick reminder: Since moving to the 13-game regular season, the #1 seed winners have been 9-4 and 11-2. So a good target to get the #1 seed is 10-3, which means that having two losses after Week 4 is a problem. 3 losses after Week 5, and you are fighting for the playoffs instead of a regular season title.

The Games:

Paul (2-0-1) vs Greg (2-1)
Score: Paul 109.26, Greg 112.66
Odds: Greg 69% favorite.
Remaining players: Paul: John Ross, Greg: Joe Mixon.
Outlook: Paul deserves some karmic penalty for that blasphemous tie. Maybe he'll get it here. He's been carried by the New England defense, which isn't sustainable. He has scored the most points in the league thus far, but a silly 61 of them have been from NE's D, with 25 more this week. His WRs pooped the bed this week, and only crablegs enthusiast Jameis Winston performed well among his players. Even if he takes an L though, he still looks poised to contend for the #1 seed. Greg looks less like a #1 seed contender. His total points is middling, and his roster is thin with holes. A win here is probably necessary for Greg to maintain contention, because he's can't fall 1.5 (fuck that tie, Paul) games behind Paul's roster and expect to catch up.

Michael (2-1) vs Vitello (0-3)
Score: Michael 119.00, JV 98.53
Odds: Michael 71% favorite.
Remaining players: Michael: None, JV: Tyler Boyd.
Outlook: Josh is probably already out of the #1 seed running. If he loses, he'll be battling just to make the playoffs the rest of the way. His roster is a disaster. Every single member of his bench has an O next to his name. Michael has the second-most points scored thus far, and a win here solidifies him as a #1 seed contender. WR is a problem and he only has one starting RB on his whole roster, but there's enough to work with to make a run. But he can't lose to a winless team and expect to contend, and this week has cut it far too close.

Shane (2-1) vs Fingz (0-2-1)
Score: Fingz 102.40, Shane 96.63
Odds: Shane 71% favorite.
Remaining players: Fingz: None, Shane: Juju Smith-Schuster.
Outlook: Fingz is in danger of slipping away. He was lucky to get a tie off of Paul in Week 1 (damn both of you). His roster outside of RBs Bell/Chubb is pretty awful. Shane looks like a contender, especially if Gurley can stay healthy. He needs WR help, but Mahomes/Jackson can be a devastating QB combo.

Matt (2-1) vs Chris (1-2)
Score: Chris 110.07, Matt 96.90
Odds: Chris 84% favorite.
Remaining players: Chris: None, Matt: Pittsburgh D.
Outlook: Chris is enduring his annual injuries (Brees, Barkley), but a win here could keep him afloat. If he can just make the playoffs, he'd have a monster roster with AJ Green mixed in as well. His WRs will make it tough to get there though. Matt has his own injury problems, but a worse roster than Chris. He's a Luck Index darling, Chris is traditionally a Luck Index casualty, but maybe this time around will offer some payback. Feels like these teams' records should be reversed, and Chris winning is the just outcome.

Rob (2-1) vs Wendell (1-2)
Score: Robb 111.66, Wendell 105.53
Odds: Wendell 75% favorite.
Remaining players: Rob: None, Wendell: James Conner.
Outlook: James Connor should get 7 points, right? That would be a rough result for Rob, essentially beaten by Chris Godwin singlehandedly. Rob has the most RB depth in the league, but losing Austin Ekeler because Melvin Gordon returned is going to be a blow. I still think Rob is a contender for the #1 seed, even if he takes a second loss here, but he'd have to win out or get lucky. He has the talent and depth to do it. Wendell is probably a middle-of-the-pack finisher, so he needs this win mainly to stay well above the playoff cut line. I don't see the talent to push into the contenders, especially already having two losses.