NBA Draft Preview: Who Will Be A Bust?

Now is the time to do an NBA Draft preview, before someone gets hot for the NCAA tournament and artificially inflates their stock (Bryant Reeves, I'm looking in your direction. It's hard not to, I know....). The consensus seems to be that this is the deepest draft in years. Really? In reality, it's significantly worse than the 2003 draft even before we learn that a few of the top projected picks will stay in college. Below are several highly-rated prospects, ranked in order of possible draft position, evaluated based on what they have done and what the odds they have of reaching their "tremendous upside potential".

1. Greg Oden
It's hard to judge a man who is hurt so badly he shoots free throws with his off-hand, but he has shown that he can be taken out of games by physical opponents. Fightling for position and showing passion have nothing to do with his injured hand. His physical gifts assure him of a certain level of success in the NBA, barring injury, and he can be a dominant defender. But are is gifts significantly greater than Michael Olowokandi's? He will be an above-average NBA center, think Tyson Chandler with a few more dunks, but not an all-timer. In today's NBA, that makes him a #1 pick.

2. Kevin Durant
What can't he do? Offensively, you have to look a ways backward for a good comparison. Many people mention Carmelo Anthony, but Durant far surpases Anthony's skills at the same age. Anthony wasn't a top-5 pick until everyone saw his play in the NCAAs. What sets him apart is his rebounding abilities, which Anthony never had. He's more like a Glenn Robinson, who was POY and led Purdue to a #1 seed (and historic flameout), although Durant has more athleticism and that alone will make him a better pro than the Big Dog. Here's the real #1 pick.

3. Julian Wright
Wright is often called "versatile" and "unselfish", which are kisses of death for an NBA career. Scouts also often add "when he wants to" before describing his potential, which is another big red flag. Wright can be a very nice role player, maybe even a third fiddle on a good team, but he will need a defined roll and he is not an alpha dog. His demeanor on the court suggests he would flourish in such a role. Is that what you want out of a #3 pick? Since the owner of the #3 pick is usually a bad team then adding Wright won't help, much like the then-horrible Grizzlies selecting Shane Battier. Julian will have a solid NBA career, but not with the team who drafts him.

4. Brandan Wright
All potential, no delivery. Scouts love his size, length, athleticism, etc: all the measurables. But watch him on the court and you get the feeling he should be doing more. He can't shoot free throws, which is usually an indicator of how much a players works on his game, and he plays next to Tyler Hansbrough who does all the dirty work. Wright is a classic example of potential-driven hype.

5. Joakim Noah
Noah plays with more passion for a high-lottery pick than anyone in a long time. But how good will he be? Well, he doesn't appear to be improved from last season. And he's called the NBA "a joke". So we have a strange dichotomy: he plays with all the passion and fervor anyone could ask for, but off the court he doesn't seem to have the same fire to improve. In addition, he's another player who gained a reputation based largely on a hot streak: the 2006 NCAAs. I don't trust his commitment to basketball, particularly NBA basketball which he has called "a joke". He could be Marcus Camby if he lands on the right team, but only if he lands ont he right team. Most likely he'll get drafted by a bad team, get poisoned by the NBA atmosphere, and fade away with unfulfilled potential.

6. Al Horford
Horford might be a better pro than his teammate Noah. The NBA is moving to smaller, faster teams and Horford could be a force. He's Udonis Haslem with a bit more talent and shot-blocking ability, and like Haslem he could flourish in the right system. With a strong motor and a will to improve, he'll be in the league long enough to find that system.

7. Spencer Hawes
This is another guy who will stick around in the league for a long time, and eventually find the right situation to flourish. He's as skilled as any center in the last twenty years, but he clearly needs more strength and weight. Once he becomes an NBA-ready rebounder, which is probably 2-3 years of physical development away, he can be the centerpiece of a beautiful motion offense on a team with a few shooters, a slasher, and a rugged rebounder/defender. His work ethic is unquestionable (people aren't born with the ability to finish moves with both hands like he can), so it's only a matter of time before he becomes an effective NBA center, barring injury. Until then, however, he's a poor man's Andrew Bogut.

8. Yi Jianlian
"The best Chinese center since Yao Ming". There are other Chinese centers since Yao Ming? He's supposedly a shooter/ballhandler 7-footer who's dominating Chinese basketball. China has a billion people, and the only one who plays in the NBA is 7'6". Not good odds. This reeks of a desperate attempt to find "the next Yao". This is a guaranteed wasted pick, so he'll likely go to the Oklahoma City Sonics.

9. Brook Lopez
Another big man with potential, and most likely P.J. Brown at best. With so many big guys in the lottery, that means some really excellent players will be taken by some pretty good teams in the mid-to-late teens. Does that make this a deep draft? No, it makes it a deceptively shallow draft with a bunch of possible stiffs at the top. It's guaranteed that at least 5 of the top 10 taken in this draft will be disappointments at best. Lopez is a strong candidate.

10. Thaddeus Young
Now we start to get into the glut of swingmen who would be #5 picks in normal years but this year will get pushed because of all the big man "talent". Young's negatives are strength and the lack of a position. "Lack of a position" is a term that idiots use to inadvertently reveal their incompetence. What position does Dwayne Wade play? What position does Dirk Nowitzki play? Young has as much potential as Julian Wright in the right system.

11. Chase Budinger
Talented... Athletic... Great shooter... Not to be dismissive, but haven't we heard this before from players out of Arizona? Well, we have. But that's not a bad thing because Zona alumni are all over the NBA. Budinger can be an impact player in the NBA as it moves back to a faster pace with his shooting ability and size. By "impact" I mean that he'll be the x-factor in some games, but won't be able to overcome too much attention by the opposition. In other words, a strong role player for a good team but a sub-third fiddle. Like Kyle Korver.

12. Al Thornton
An athletic defender with improving offensive skills. Can anyone peg him for sure? No, but he'll almost certainly end up better than....

13. Corey Brewer
Classic. Inflated stock due to a hot streak on a good team in March, followed by an "inconsistent" season. The reason? He was never very good to begin with. I think he has a birthmark on his ass that resembles the word "bust".

There you go, I got you through the lottery. This is the time of year when everyone can be an NBA superstar, and no one will be a bust. History shows us otherwise. The key is figure out who will be the bust before drafting him (>cough<>cough<). Ahem, excuse me. Anyway, watch out for the player not on anyone's list who rises based solely on being hot during the next couple weeks. That guy is going to be a bust, too.