Wednesday, November 20, 2019

Boz Cup XVIII Week 12 Preview

Only 2 weeks left, and there's an amazing logjam at the top of the standings:

Paul (7-3-1, 1481.00pts)
Fingz (7-3-1, 1291.70pts)
Michael (7-4, 1518.24pts)
Matt (7-4, 1358.28pts)
Shane (7-4, 1355.92pts)

I'll breakdown each team and the remaining schedule. At the bottom of the standings (not Vitello-bottom, but second-bottom), there's a battle to make the playoffs. Rob is a game back of Chris/Wendell/Greg, and is competitive with the tie-breaker point total, so we'll keep an eye on that race as well.

Funny to think that the race for the #1 Seed (and resulting $$$) could come down to the .01 points Paul and Fingz did/didn't get when they tied in Week 1.

Since there are so many competitors for the #1 Seed, very likely the winner in the group will have to go 2-0 the rest of the way, and in some cases 2-0 with help.

Paul
Remaining schedule: Matt, Greg
Best players: Prescott, Elliott, Aaron Jones, Jacobs
Outlook: What really matters is the Cowboys' schedule, and they play NE and Buf in the next two weeks. That NE matchup is rough, could it result in Paul getting beaten by Matt? Greg is reeling, he likely won't put up much resistance. So the #1 seed race could very well come down to the Paul/Matt winner this week, but Matt's team is an empty husk so Paul is a heavy favorite for the #1 seed I believe.

Fingz
Remaining Schedule: Greg, Shane
Best players: Cousins, Chubb, Wentz
Outlook: Not great? Heavy point deficit against Paul, and Paul has the easier schedule. Cousins still has his bye this week, too. I don't love his chances, but Matt and Shane's chances are perhaps even worse, if only because Fingz own the "tiebreaker" (having a tie instead of a 4th loss).

Michael
Remaining Schedule: Shane, Vitello
Best players: McCaffery, Wilson, Evans
Outlook: Easiest remaining schedule, mostly due to being the only contender with Vitello on the schedule. Most points scored by a wide margin among the non-tie teams, so tiebreaker is looking good. Beating Shane combined with Paul losing to Matt might all but lock up the #1 Seed.
Matt
Remaining Schedule: Paul, Chris
Best players: Henry, ????
Outlook: How exactly has Matt been winning? His roster is a train wreck. There had to have been an injury that I'm too lazy to look up. Kamara has been a big disappointment. So has Mayfield and Foles. I don't see this roster going 2-0 in the final weeks, nor making a playoff run. This is one reason Paul should be the heavy favorite for the #1 seed.
Shane
Remaining Schedule: Michael, Matt
Best players: Jackson, Mahomes, Mack
Outlook: The toughest remaining schedule, and the least amount of point scored among the 7-4 teams (although barely to Matt). Plus, Mahomes still has a bye and Mack is hurt. Tough uphill sledding to get the #1 seed, but a win against Michael would be huge because Matt is a smoke-and-mirrors operation, With a little luck, Shane could sneak in to the #1 seed and extra $$$.