Weekend Preview: Season 12, Week 8

Welcome to the second half of Boz Cup 12! At the halfway mark Michael is threatening to run away with the title, and we have a huge game between him and second-place Paul. More on that a bit later.

There's a huge glut in 2nd-9th, with every team either 4-3 or 3-4. Josh M is struggling with a lackluster title defense at 2-5. But it is still very easy for everyone else to either finish in the money or playing in the Toilet Bowl.

Matt has fallen the last two weeks, and now faces some injury problems. Meanwhile Paul has rocketed upward with a 3-game streak. Shane has staged a mini-comeback as well, while Wendell and Chris are fading from contention.

But the Boz Cup has a funny history of being closer than people expect. No team ever runs away with the title after a fast start. Greg is nodding vigorously.


Here's a look ahead at Week 8 matchups:

Last week predictions: 4-1

Paul 4-3 (90-71) vs Michael 6-1 (82-79)
Michael has a slim 11-10 series edge, but Paul has won the last 2 and 4-of-5.
This game is important for Paul but also for the league behind Michael. If Michael wins, he is 7-1 with a minimum 2-game lead over everyone and possibly three depending on how Matt and Shane perform. If Paul wins, then he is just a game back and the whole pack moves a bit closer. This is the most important game of the season thus far. And who has the edge? Michael takes a hit if Jimmy Graham can't play, and Paul has a large advantage at running back, and a smaller but still decided advantage at WR. This could come down to MNF, with Russell Wilson and the Hawks D for Paul, and Steven Hauschka for Michael. But it shouldn't matter, look for Paul to win and keep the Cup chase exciting, because that's what happens in the Boz Cup.

Josh V 3-4 (80-81) vs Chris 3-4 (71-90)
Josh is 12-6 against Chris, and is on a 3-game win streak.
Josh has massive bye problems plus injury issues, which may be just what Chris needs to get back on track. Chris has scored the fewest points in the league by a wide margin, but despite that look for him to get past Josh this week. Too many byes.

Matt 4-3 (30-19) vs Wendell 3-4 (89-72)
Wendell leads 3-2, but Matt won the most recent game.
Michael Vick returns, and none too soon for Matt who has been in a tailspin without him. He has some bye problems, though Wendell does too. The terrible backups RBs playing this week cancel each other out, which should leave Matt to triumph because his Eagles are facing the terrible Giants D.

Josh M 2-5 (29-20) vs Rob 3-4 (65-96)
Josh is 3-1 against Rob, but Rob won the last game.
Byes and injuries are ravaging Josh this week, and it doesn't seen likely he'll be able to hold up against Rob. Solid matchups should allow Rob to coast to an easy win.

Shane 4-3 (83-78) vs Greg 3-4 (78-83)
Greg is 15-6 against Shane, one of the most lopsided series. And Greg is on a 7-game win streak, the longest active series streak.
Greg has truly severe bye issues this week, almost as if his draft planned to take this week off. Shane will take it, of course, all the way to 5-3 and a game behind Michael. Hard to see how Greg even fields a team this week, but he has total point tiebreakers to think about.

Weekend Preview: Season 12, Week 7

Time for Week 7, the last game of the first half of the Boz Cup season! The Seahawks already have their win this week, and Paul reaped the benefits with Russell Wilson and the Hawks’ D in his lineup, giving him a nice start to an important game against Matt.

 

Michael is alone in first, after a poor performance by Trent Richardson on MNF held Matt just short of a win that would have kept him tied. As it stands, Michael was the only team of the top 4 in last week’s standings to win. He’s 5-1, his best start ever to any season, with Matt sitting at 4-2 and a glut of teams at 3-3.

 

When asked about his fast start, Michael said “I’d like to remind everyone to pay the $100 league dues.”

 

Only two teams on a bye this week, so most teams are at full strength (ignoring injuries). That should make for a nice, high-scoring week. When asked about his bye week issues, Josh V said “Wait, what day is it?”

 

 

 

 

Here's a look ahead at Week 6 matchups:

Last week predictions: 3-2

Paul 3-3 (89-71) vs Matt 4-2 (30-18)
The series is tied 2-2, but Paul has won the last two games.
Paul is making yet another midseason surge. Will Matt be his next victim? Not likely, with Drew Brees on a bye. Looks for Matt to overpower Paul and move to 5-2.

Josh M 2-4 (29-19) vs Michael 5-1 (81-79)
The series is tied 3-3, with Josh M having won the last meeting.
Josh helped Michael immensely with a close win over Matt last week. Will he continue to help Michael by losing this week, or will he become the season’s giant slayer? Michael’s secret weapon, Jimmy Graham, is out this week and DeMarco Murray is hurt, so Josh has a good chance. But overall, Michael’s quarterbacks are driving his bus while Josh’s QBs are inconsistent. Look for Michael to win again, moving to 6-1.

Chris 3-3 (71-89) vs Greg 2-4 (77-83)
Greg leads 13-8 all time, but Chris won the most recent game.
Greg lost his must-win game last week, and Chris’ squad is on life support after a promising start. Chris’ injury problems are completely unreasonable, which is too bad. Look for Greg to pull out a win.

Josh V 2-4 (79-81) vs Rob 3-3 (65-95)
Rob is 14-7 against Josh, the only series where he has a winning record. Rob has won the last 4 meetings.
Rob has dominated this series, but Josh appears to hold the edge in matchups if he can somehow get a kicker into his lineup before Sunday. Ultimately, Josh still has a strong team that appears ready to make a run if he can get out of his own way. Josh should be able to pull this week out.

Shane 3-3 (82-78) vs Wendell 3-3 (89-71)
Shane is 15-6 against Wendell, one of the most lopsided series. Wendell won the last meeting.
Shane pulled out a win last week despite bye issues, so he should be poised for a nice run, right? To do so he’d have to get through Wendell, who’s promising squad is showing some cracks at WR. Shane has WR problems of his own, but he should overcome them this week for a win.

Weekend Preview: Season 12, Week 6

Tonight is the first game of Week 6. The Bears are going to emasculate the Giants on national TV. Hide the children!

 

Matt and Michael are still in front at 4-1 and are the two highest scorers. Only two squads sit at 3-2, Wendell and Chris (Chris despite having the lowest-scoring team). And poor Josh M, the two-time defending champ, is bringing up the rear. We caught up with Josh after practice Wednesday to ask him about his team being in last place, and he said "Fuck you." Which ironically is exactly what Chris told us when asked why his team has scored so few points.

 

Injuries and bye problems abound this week. Calvin Johnson (sadly) and Stevan Ridley (mercifully) are the latest to go down. Depth is a problem for most teams, so expect overall scoring to dip in the coming weeks.

 

It continues to be a QB's league, with 9 of the top 12 scorers QBs. The only non-QBs? Jimmy Graham (whom everyone made fun of drafting in Round 2), Jamaal Charles (whom Paul immediately declared a mistake pick), and LeSean McCoy. Michael and Matt both have 3 members of the top 12, which is not a coincidence.

 

When asked why his draft was such a success, Michael said "Fuck you."

 

 

Here's a look ahead at Week 6 matchups:

Last week predictions: 3-2

Paul 2-3 (88-71) vs Wendell 3-2 (89-70)
Wendell is 15-5 all time vs Paul, and has won the last two games.
Paul seems to be rounding into form in midseason, but Wendell looks strong as well. the matchups seem pretty mixed, so the edge goes to historical trends. Wendell will pick up a win to keep pace with the leaders.

Josh M 1-3 (28-19) vs Matt 4-1 (30-17)
Matt is 2-1 versus Josh, and won the last meeting.
In a battle of expansion owners, Matt has pulled ahead in overall win percentage with his early success this season. Would it be very Boz Cup-esque for Josh to knock off Matt? Yes, yes it would. Can it happen? It can, and it will.

Rob 2-3 (64-95) vs Greg 2-3 (77-82)
Greg leads 13-7 all time, but Rob won the most recent game.
Is this a must-win game? It's early to think that way, but the loser could be 3 games out of first come Tuesday. This one should come down to MNF, but look for Rob to fend off a late charge by Greg.

Michael 4-1 (80-79) vs Josh V 2-3 (79-80)
The all-time series is even at 10 apiece, with Michael having won the last game.
Michael is riding high, and his superstar Peyton Manning faces the woeful Jaguars this week. Can he capitalize? Probably so, considering Josh forgot to put Cutler into his lineup before kickoff. Josh also has some injury issues at WR. Look for Michael to improve to 5-1, his best ever Boz Cup start.

Shane 2-3 (81-78) vs Chris 3-2 (71-88)
Chris is 11-9 versus Shane, and has won the last 2 matchups.
Shane has severe bye issues this week. Can Chris continue to win while scoring few points? It appears so, because at present Shane represents no threat at all. Despite his own issues, look for Chris to continue his run.

Weekend Preview: Season 12, Week 5

 

Week 5 starts today with Buffalo versus Cleveland, a titanic matchup with major fantasy implications! (not really)

 

Matt and Michael are in front at 3-1 and are the two highest scorers, a huge glut sits at 2-2, with Paul and Josh M bringing up the rear at 1-3. The league is wide open once again!

 

Scoring is led by Peyton Manning, who was Michael’s first round pick. Jimmy Graham is 5^th in scoring, whom Michael drafted in the 2^nd round. When asked about his amazing foresight in drafting Manning, Michael said “It was a mistake, I should have taken CJ Spiller and Steven Jackson. My 25 mock drafts composite and round-by-round values chart said so, but I didn’t follow it. I fucked up!”

 

Matt is dependent upon the Eagles combo of Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy. When asked after practice Monday about what he’ll do during the bye, Matt said “What’s a ‘bye’ week? There are bye weeks? No one told me!”

 

Josh M won Week 4. On his scoring outburst, he said “I’ve won the last two years, I have to start 0-3 just to make it challenging for me. The other coaches are so terrible.”

 

Josh V barely missed out on the weekly and had to settle for second. He didn’t sound happy about it when we caught up with him, “I wish I was Paul Rickey. I wanna be Paul Rickey so bad. Life would be so much better if I was Paul Rickey.”

 

 

Here's a look ahead at Week 5 matchups:

Paul 1-3 (87-71) vs Shane 2-2 (81-77)
Paul is 13-7 all time vs Shane, and Paul won the last matchup.
Paul has had a rough start to the season, but he normally gets back on track and finishes in the playoffs. Will he do it again? Shane’s squad gets Cam Newton back from a bye, but his weakness at RB with Adrian Peterson on a bye is significant. Paul is catching Shane on the right week, and will win the matchup.

Josh M 1-3 (28-18) vs Wendell 2-2 (88-70)
Josh is 3-2 vs Wendell all time, with a 2 game winning streak.
Wendell has some serious bye week problems at RB, plus an unoriginal team name. Josh M has decided to start the season, so watch out. Josh will climb up to 2-3.

Rob 2-2 (64-94) vs Chris 2-2 (70-88)
Chris leads 11-9 all time, but Rob won the most recent game.
Chris has some RB problems and injuries at WR, but Rob has severe bye week problems. This will likely be to lowest scoring matchup of the week, but look for Rob to pull out the cheap win.

Matt 3-1 (29-17) vs Josh V 2-2 (79-79)
Matt leads 5-1 all-time, but Josh V won the last meeting.
Matt’s Eagles have a great matchup against the Giants. Will that be enough to take the win? Josh V is at full strength as well, but Matt’s best is better than Josh’s best this season. Matt will win easily and move to 4-1.

Michael 3-1 (79-79) vs Greg 2-2 (77-81)
Michael leads the series 16-5 all time, and won the last two matchups.
Michael has dominated the historical series and holds a big edge in projected points. Meanwhile, Greg has some matchups problems and injury issues. This one is easy, Michael will move to 4-1.  

How to draft your team, not a team.

Before starting any fantasy football analysis, we need to start at the beginning and ask a simple question: What is your goal?  If your goal is to win your league, what does that mean?  It might mean to make the playoffs, then win the playoffs.  It might mean to win the regular season, with playoff success as a bonus.  My assumption is that to win a standard league, you need to make the playoffs then win the playoffs.  That means 8 wins, plus wins in weeks 15 and 16.  That’s the goal: 8 wins, plus two.  Throughout draft prep and the season, think about this goal first.

The most important event of the fantasy season is the draft. That's no secret. You can make shrewd trades or pick up a stud off the waiver wire, but those moves only supplement what you have already rostered during the draft.

There are lots of tools that will help you win a draft. Do enough mocks, and you will become good at mock drafting. But most of us are not in a hundred leagues we care about equally, we have one league we care about more than any other. So the problem is not winning a draft, the problem is winning your draft.

Do enough mocks, and you settle into a pattern. You find the same sleepers every time. And that's fine if your goal is to be better than average over a large number of drafts. But if your goal is to win one particular draft, mocks don't help.

To win one particular draft, you need several tools. Some of these are available on various fantasy sites, some you will have to do yourself. Consider it training camp.

1. A comprehensive draft sheet

I will not call it a "cheat sheet", because typical cheat sheets are woefully inadequate. This needs to be a page with tiered positions, point projections per tier, and tier round ranges.

2. A schedule strength sheet

Think about your goal: win enough weeks to make the playoffs, then win the playoffs. To make the playoffs you need 8 wins. So what you need to know during the draft is what those 8 weeks are, so you can optimize. Listing byes doesn't cut it.

3. A late-round streaming guide for each position.

You don't necessarily know which position you will be short on, if you are value-drafting. So make sure you know how to stream QBs or TEs or your third WR if you need to. Don't wait on RBs, streaming them isn't pretty.

First, the draft sheet.  A typical “cheat sheet” has a list of players at each position, with a bye week next to each name.  Can this be less helpful?  I prefer to vomit into a bucket and use that instead.

Any self-respecting draft sheet has tiers; players in groups of like-valued players.  For instance, Calvin Johnson and AJ Green might make up your WR Tier 1 (or WR1, as I’ll be using), while Brandon Marshall and Dez Bryant are in your Tier 2 (WR2).  This is better, but still inadequate to differentiate ourselves from our drafting opponents.  And importantly, this is as far or farther than nearly every out-of-the-box “cheat sheet” will go.

So we need a next step.  We need to keep in mind our Goal.  Let’s say we are sitting in round 4, and you have rostered three guys.  You have 5 guys left in a tier of WRs to choose from.  Which of those WRs will help your specific roster the most?  This isn’t about covering byes, it is about optimizing your lineup to win 8 weeks.  What additional info do we need to achieve this goal?

Basically, we need to quickly know what our strongest and weakest weeks are as we are drafting.  The info needs to be quick and clear, and it needs to change as players are added to the roster.  And it needs to show how adding certain players would affect it.  In the end, we should have maximized our odds of winning 8 weeks, plus the playoff weeks of course.

The first step is to take a look at the playoff weeks and eliminate some teams.  There’s no way to know how good defenses are going to be by the end of the season, but instead of predicting a top ten we can reasonably predict a couple teams to stay away from.  In the past 4 years, only 2 teams have finished in the top 2 of scoring defense, then outside of the top ten the following season: the 2010 Cowboys and 2011 Packers.  But those teams weren’t supposed to be good in those years; a drop-off was expected for each, though not as drastic as what occurred.  The top two scoring defenses in 2012 were Seattle and San Francisco, and both are expected to be excellent again.  So in the interests of winning in the playoff weeks, we should avoid players on the Giants (Sea Week 15) and Bucs (SF Week 15), and especially the Cardinals (@Sea Week 16) and Falcons (@SF Week 16).  Another options would be to draft those players but ultimately trade them prior to the playoffs, but the point stands: those teams face tough matchups in must-win weeks, so they should not be on our rosters for those weeks.  This is great info to use if you are debating between Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald, and Dez Bryant (GB Week 15, @Was Week 16).

The first draft pick sets the tone for which weeks will make up your 8 wins.  If you select Adrian Peterson, you should expect to win Weeks 1 and 9 (@Det, @Dal), and he give you potentially a good matchup in the playoffs’ first round (home against Philly).  But his bye is Week 5, and he has tough matchups in weeks 2, 4, 11, 13, and 14, plus the potential super bowl week 16 (@Cincy).  So after drafting Peterson, your priority in subsequent rounds should be to strengthen at least one of the five weeks in which Peterson has tough matchups or a bye, without sacrificing any of the weeks where Peterson has more neutral matchups.  You may value Cam Newton or other Panthers a bit more, because they have favorable matchups in weeks 2, 13, and 14 to cover weaknesses in Peterson’s schedule, and it may help you solidify weeks 4 and 11 as weeks you don’t care about and won’t optimize for.  Panthers and Packers have week 4 byes; Cowboys and Rams have week 11 byes.  All else being equal, you should move players from those teams up in their tiers because they are more valuable to your team.

Knowing what weeks are your strongest and weakest has an added benefit.  Say you lose your first week.  No problem, right?  It’s a long season.  Then you lose your second week.  Is it time to panic?  If you know your weekly strengths and weaknesses, and the first two weeks were your strongest, then yes it is time to panic.  Have a firesale!  But if the first two week were your weakest, then hold on for a while longer.  It’s the fantasy equivalent of losing road games in the NBA playoffs: the season doesn’t start until you lose a strong week or win a weak one.

This is all great, but how do you determine what is a strong week versus a weak week?  This is where some personal investigation is needed, based on league scoring settings and history.  In my league, we have had the same scoring settings for the past three years, so I can easily determine what the average point total is that puts me in the upper half of weekly scoring, meaning I have a greater chance of winning the week than losing it (this all depends on opponent, which is uncontrollable; I’m talking probabilities here).  For simplicity, let’s say that the weekly tipping point is 100 points.  Score 100 every week, and you will score more than at least 5 of your leaguemates in a 10-team league, and possibly less than 4, which amounts to at least a 56% chance of victory, which over the course of the season means at least 7.8 wins.  So 100 points should be your target per week.

And how to get there?  That is where the point projections per tier come in.  Let’s say I attach 10 points to my WR2 tier.  My next step is to define up to ten defenses that I believe will be the best scoring defenses and up to ten that will be the worst.  To take it a step further, I could define them based on position, and have different lists for RBs versus QB/WRs.  Then I look at the NFL schedule, and for each time a player has a tough matchup I subtracts 2 points for that week, and for each time they have a good matchup, I add 2 points.  Using a spreadsheet, I can quickly add the columns from the players I draft (or players I might draft) to see what my totals are for each week.  I can use placeholders for kicker and defense, since of course I’m waiting until the end to draft them, and easily see what my 8 win weeks are, and which ones I need to augment.  Late in the draft, when choosing backups and filling out the roster, I can make educated decisions about which players will help my team the most, not just some generic team.

 

It takes some work, but it personalizes your team like no other method.  In addition, it gives you benchmarks to measure your team during the season.  As defenses reveal themselves to be great (or terrible), you can adjust your projected scores and evaluate trades based on getting you the points to reach 8 wins, and then set yourself up to succeed in the playoffs.  That the goal, after all.

 

 

 

2-QB Rules

As always when starting out with a league, you need to know the rules. Three years ago, when we expanded from 8 to 10 teams, my first and only priority was to make rules that preserved our ability to be a 2-QB league, because playing in a 1-QB league makes by far the most important position comically unimportant. With no more than 6 NFL teams on a bye in a week, there are always at least 26 starting QBs playing each week, which is enough for everyone to fill out their roster every week.

But not by much. My concern was that someone (perhaps me) would hoard quarterbacks and lead to situations where guys were playing QBs who didn't even start, or just leave the slot empty for the week. Fantasy Football is about fun, and it is no fun to get stuck in a corner with no way out except through extortion-type trades. I stepped up to become commissioner for the sole purpose of making the 2-QB system work in a 10-team league.

So our first solution: When you roster a QB, no one else can roster a QB from that team, and you have first right to pick up the backup if the starter is replaced or gets hurt. That season, this came into play when Michael Vick got hurt (I know, shocking). Other owners were not allowed to roster the backup, I believe it was Kevin Kolb at the time, until the Vick owner decided not to. Deadline was Tuesday at noon, and the Vick owner decided to drop Vick and grab Kolb. The rule served as basically an extra roster spot, and it required a lot of oversight.  While it worked okay, I didn't like it.

Our second solution: No team can roster more than 3 QBs, ever.  This is pretty straightforward, but again it required a lot of oversight by me to make sure nobody was sneaking extra QBs onto their roster. It had the benefit of ensuring that at least 2 NFL starting QBs were in the free agent pool at all times. But due to the oversight, and to the fact that no one likes roster restrictions, it didn't really work.

Our third solution: No team can draft more than 3 QBs, but after the draft there are no roster restrictions.  This one worked well.  There was a little oversight during the draft; I would announce when a team couldn't draft anymore QBs, so whomever drafted the 30th could wait until the last round (which no one had a problem with).  But once the draft ended, there was no more oversight required, and coaches didn't have to remember any roster-restrictive rules.  The downside was that in midseason there was an instance, maybe two, of a coach who didn't have a playing QB on his roster and the free agent pool was bone dry.  But in the end, it was that coach's fault for not thinking ahead (or it was his strategy of tanking for a week in favor of being stronger for the rest).

Another added benefit: since the scenario of a coach spamming QB picks during the draft was removed, coaches didn't have to worry as much about getting stuck with the dregs.  Therefore, QB picks didn't dominate the first three rounds like they do in so many 2-QB 10+ team leagues.  There was actually positional balance among the picks, which made for a very exciting and unpredictable draft (which are the most fun, of course).

Since I'm a tinkerer, I am pondering new rules surrounding the QBs for this season. Maybe we drop a bench spot from 6 to 5, so it is more likely a QB can be found in the FA pool.  Maybe we nerf the QB scoring further (its already only 4-per-td, 1-per-30-yards, -2-per-int).  Maybe we beef up the other positions by adding a half-point per reception.  My goal is for the positional scoring to be relatively even at the end of the year, which implies that there are multiple strategies to win.  In too many 2-QB leagues, QBs are the be-all, end-all.  If you don't finish near the top in QB scoring, you won't win.  I hate that.  I want a league where you can finish near the bottom of QB (or any position) scoring, but still win because the other positions are just as important.  This happened last season: our champion finished 8th in QB scoring, but 1st in RB and WR scoring and won the Boz Cup.

2-QB leagues are the most fun because each week you have not one but two guys starting on your team who play the most important position in football, and so does your opponent.  It makes watching the games each week that much more fun, because more games matter.  You wouldn't watch a Browns game because you are starting Greg Little.  But you would watch it if you are starting Brandon Weeden  (God help me, I started Weeden a few times last season....and he wasn't bad).

But if you are in a 2-QB league, and Brandon Weeden is getting drafted ahead of Trent Richardson?  Then your commissioner is failing, in my humble opinion.  No one position should dominate the others.  So mind your rules!

Back

The last post in this blog was by me in 2008.  Even then I was the only one of us posting (or even viewing) the blog, so I suppose it stands to reason that I would come back to it first.  Those were heady days in 2008: my fantasy squad, despite the steep mountain to climb, did come back and win our league by a microscopic 6-point margin in the tiebreaker.  It was the best moment of my life (was, since now I am married, hi honey!).

Since then we expanded our league to 10.  Embarrassingly, in each of the three seasons since, one of the new coaches has won each time.  But fantasy football remains a highlight every year.

As for this year, I'm going to attempt to make posts about my draft preparation.  We do a 2-QB 10-team league.  I highly recommend 2-QB leagues, to the point where I don't understand why anyone would prefer the standard format, and having dealt with drafting for 2-QB leagues for so long, I feel it is time to put my thoughts down in writing (typing?).  Anyone can adjust their regular fantasy rankings and shit out a 2-QB draft strategy.  But when your only league is 2-QB, and every thought all offseason occurs in the 2-QB framework, then I believe more insight can be reached.  Guess what: the answer is not to move QBs up a round from a regular rankings list.  That advice is embarrassingly lazy.  Better advice would be to remove the names from your cheat sheet, instead make rankings based on your point projections, and draft that way (I'll take WR-10pt in round 3 please).