Boz Cup XVIII Week 12 Preview

Only 2 weeks left, and there's an amazing logjam at the top of the standings:

Paul (7-3-1, 1481.00pts)

Fingz (7-3-1, 1291.70pts)

Michael (7-4, 1518.24pts)

Matt (7-4, 1358.28pts)

Shane (7-4, 1355.92pts)

I'll breakdown each team and the remaining schedule. At the bottom of the standings (not Vitello-bottom, but second-bottom), there's a battle to make the playoffs. Rob is a game back of Chris/Wendell/Greg, and is competitive with the tie-breaker point total, so we'll keep an eye on that race as well.

Funny to think that the race for the #1 Seed (and resulting $$$) could come down to the .01 points Paul and Fingz did/didn't get when they tied in Week 1.

Since there are so many competitors for the #1 Seed, very likely the winner in the group will have to go 2-0 the rest of the way, and in some cases 2-0 with help.

Paul

Remaining schedule: Matt, Greg

Best players: Prescott, Elliott, Aaron Jones, Jacobs

Outlook: What really matters is the Cowboys' schedule, and they play NE and Buf in the next two weeks. That NE matchup is rough, could it result in Paul getting beaten by Matt? Greg is reeling, he likely won't put up much resistance. So the #1 seed race could very well come down to the Paul/Matt winner this week, but Matt's team is an empty husk so Paul is a heavy favorite for the #1 seed I believe.

Fingz

Remaining Schedule: Greg, Shane

Best players: Cousins, Chubb, Wentz

Outlook: Not great? Heavy point deficit against Paul, and Paul has the easier schedule. Cousins still has his bye this week, too. I don't love his chances, but Matt and Shane's chances are perhaps even worse, if only because Fingz own the "tiebreaker" (having a tie instead of a 4th loss).

Michael

Remaining Schedule: Shane, Vitello

Best players: McCaffery, Wilson, Evans

Outlook: Easiest remaining schedule, mostly due to being the only contender with Vitello on the schedule. Most points scored by a wide margin among the non-tie teams, so tiebreaker is looking good. Beating Shane combined with Paul losing to Matt might all but lock up the #1 Seed.

Matt

Remaining Schedule: Paul, Chris

Best players: Henry, ????

Outlook: How exactly has Matt been winning? His roster is a train wreck. There had to have been an injury that I'm too lazy to look up. Kamara has been a big disappointment. So has Mayfield and Foles. I don't see this roster going 2-0 in the final weeks, nor making a playoff run. This is one reason Paul should be the heavy favorite for the #1 seed.

Shane

Remaining Schedule: Michael, Matt

Best players: Jackson, Mahomes, Mack

Outlook: The toughest remaining schedule, and the least amount of point scored among the 7-4 teams (although barely to Matt). Plus, Mahomes still has a bye and Mack is hurt. Tough uphill sledding to get the #1 seed, but a win against Michael would be huge because Matt is a smoke-and-mirrors operation, With a little luck, Shane could sneak in to the #1 seed and extra $$$.

Boz Cup XVIII Week 8 Preview

Halfway-ish through the regular season, and we have a clusterfuck in the middle of the standings. Vitello has a fork sticking out of his back. Paul is being carried on the back of the New England defense. Fingz is attempting to break the Luck Index by winning the league despite scoring the fewest points. Paul and Wendell each have 2 Weekly Wins; one more for either gets them their entry fee back. Here's the Week 8 preview.

Paul (5-1-1) vs Wendell (4-3)
We know the odds are a joke because New England's D is only forecast to score 9 points, and we all know they'll score 25. But Paul is vulnerable this week with Dallas on a bye. Wendell gets Conner and Godwin back from bye, so he is nearly full strength (some injury concerns). I think Wendell will pull this one out, but if Paul wins he's primed for a run to the #1 seed.

Fingz (4-2-1) vs Michael (4-3)
Fingz has won 4 straight, Michael has lost 2 straight (both due to playing the Weekly Winner). Fingz has scored the second-least points in the league, Michael the second-most. Will Fingz's luck hold? Or will reversion to mean dictate a Fingz curb-stomping? I think I'm going to win, but what do I know? I'm only 5-9 against Fingz all-time.

Shane (4-3) vs Chris (3-4)
Chris has a good roster, but has been hurt by injuries and bad luck. But he has righted the ship with 2 straight wins. He may not have a chance at the #1 seed, but he is a threat in the playoffs with his QBs and RBs. If he gets a productive AJ Green back from injury, look out. Shane has Superstar Lamar on bye and Mahomes is hurt, so his QBs are Sam Darnold and Teddy Bridgewater. I refuse to believe a team starting those two QBs can win.

Matt (4-3) vs Rob (2-5)
Rob has actually scored more points than Matt, but fantasy football doesn't give a shit about that. As ridiculous it is that a team starting Gardner Minshew and Daniel Jones might win, I expect it to happen. Kamara might play, might not. But this seems like the kind of game that Matt wins with a rabbit's foot shoved up his ass.

Greg (4-3) vs Vitello (0-7)
Can Josh get to 0-13? A winless season has never happened, the worst is Chris' 2018 campaign where he went 1-12. 0-13 feels in play though because Josh doesn't have any RBs. Like, none at all. Kerryon Johnson is on IR, Damien Williams isn't a thing anymore, David Montgomery is a backup..... and that's it. Sure, Cam Newton is hurt, but there's really no excuse for this level of asshattery. Trade for one of Rob's RBs for fuck's sake. Greg has injuries of his own, but can he really lose this game? I think I'm doing a good job of jinxing this so that Greg loses in hilarious fashion.

Box Cup XVIII Week 4 MNF Preview

So tonight's MNF game, Bengals at Steelers, includes a surprising number of players spread across all the teams which will affect the winners this week. It's a pivotal game so I figured I'd use it as an excuse to send a season update and MNF preview.

Quick reminder: Since moving to the 13-game regular season, the #1 seed winners have been 9-4 and 11-2. So a good target to get the #1 seed is 10-3, which means that having two losses after Week 4 is a problem. 3 losses after Week 5, and you are fighting for the playoffs instead of a regular season title.

The Games:

Paul (2-0-1) vs Greg (2-1)
Score: Paul 109.26, Greg 112.66
Odds: Greg 69% favorite.
Remaining players: Paul: John Ross, Greg: Joe Mixon.
Outlook: Paul deserves some karmic penalty for that blasphemous tie. Maybe he'll get it here. He's been carried by the New England defense, which isn't sustainable. He has scored the most points in the league thus far, but a silly 61 of them have been from NE's D, with 25 more this week. His WRs pooped the bed this week, and only crablegs enthusiast Jameis Winston performed well among his players. Even if he takes an L though, he still looks poised to contend for the #1 seed. Greg looks less like a #1 seed contender. His total points is middling, and his roster is thin with holes. A win here is probably necessary for Greg to maintain contention, because he's can't fall 1.5 (fuck that tie, Paul) games behind Paul's roster and expect to catch up.

Michael (2-1) vs Vitello (0-3)
Score: Michael 119.00, JV 98.53
Odds: Michael 71% favorite.
Remaining players: Michael: None, JV: Tyler Boyd.
Outlook: Josh is probably already out of the #1 seed running. If he loses, he'll be battling just to make the playoffs the rest of the way. His roster is a disaster. Every single member of his bench has an O next to his name. Michael has the second-most points scored thus far, and a win here solidifies him as a #1 seed contender. WR is a problem and he only has one starting RB on his whole roster, but there's enough to work with to make a run. But he can't lose to a winless team and expect to contend, and this week has cut it far too close.

Shane (2-1) vs Fingz (0-2-1)
Score: Fingz 102.40, Shane 96.63
Odds: Shane 71% favorite.
Remaining players: Fingz: None, Shane: Juju Smith-Schuster.
Outlook: Fingz is in danger of slipping away. He was lucky to get a tie off of Paul in Week 1 (damn both of you). His roster outside of RBs Bell/Chubb is pretty awful. Shane looks like a contender, especially if Gurley can stay healthy. He needs WR help, but Mahomes/Jackson can be a devastating QB combo.

Matt (2-1) vs Chris (1-2)
Score: Chris 110.07, Matt 96.90
Odds: Chris 84% favorite.
Remaining players: Chris: None, Matt: Pittsburgh D.
Outlook: Chris is enduring his annual injuries (Brees, Barkley), but a win here could keep him afloat. If he can just make the playoffs, he'd have a monster roster with AJ Green mixed in as well. His WRs will make it tough to get there though. Matt has his own injury problems, but a worse roster than Chris. He's a Luck Index darling, Chris is traditionally a Luck Index casualty, but maybe this time around will offer some payback. Feels like these teams' records should be reversed, and Chris winning is the just outcome.

Rob (2-1) vs Wendell (1-2)
Score: Robb 111.66, Wendell 105.53
Odds: Wendell 75% favorite.
Remaining players: Rob: None, Wendell: James Conner.
Outlook: James Connor should get 7 points, right? That would be a rough result for Rob, essentially beaten by Chris Godwin singlehandedly. Rob has the most RB depth in the league, but losing Austin Ekeler because Melvin Gordon returned is going to be a blow. I still think Rob is a contender for the #1 seed, even if he takes a second loss here, but he'd have to win out or get lucky. He has the talent and depth to do it. Wendell is probably a middle-of-the-pack finisher, so he needs this win mainly to stay well above the playoff cut line. I don't see the talent to push into the contenders, especially already having two losses.

Boz Cup XVIII Season Preview

Remember this old blog? Reuse, repurpose, and recycle!

Boz Cup XVIII draft is complete. Here is the season outlook, in the order of how yahoo ranks our drafts.

After going through these, I realized that I have a bunch of 2nd-4th place finishers, but no favorite. Should make for an exciting season! Also, I clearly don't know what the fuck I'm talking about so take all this with a heap of salt.

1. Paul

• Strengths: RB (maybe?), WR1
• Weaknesses: TE, WR3
• Paul took the Zeke Elliott risk, which based on reports could turn into a steal if he is available Week 1. Elliott/Jones backed up by Jacobs/Lindsay is formidable and deep. Beckham is great at WR, but AB is a wildcard. QB should be fine. Just fine. Vance McDonald is another high-variance player: might be great, could be bad.
• Outlook: Playoff team, but not a contender. 3rd or 4th place.

2. Shane

• Strengths: QB, RB (maybe?)
• Weaknesses: TE, WR depth
• Shane took the Melvin Gordon risk, which is looking riskier than the Zeke flyer, but came at less cost. Gurley/Gordon is about as risky as it gets, because Gurley might be highly limited and we just don't know it yet. Mahomes/Jackson is the best QB combo. Smith-Schuster might be a one-man WR corp, but starting Corey Davis feels icky. Walker might be fine but is old and on the Titans, so likely not fine.
• Outlook: Sooo dependent on Gurley/Gordon, the outlook is entirely tied to them, so very hard to predict. My guess is that Gurley is good early but fades, meanwhile Gordon misses weeks but then signs late, and they don't overlap. Low playoff team, in the 6th place range.

3. Wendell

• Strengths: RB, WR
• Weaknesses QB2, TE
• The defending champ picked at the late turn, and stockpiled RB/WRs. RBs should be fine, although Freeman's health and workload is a questionmark. Tying WR3 and TE to Tampa Bay has pros and cons: they suck, but they will be behind a lot and therefore throw a lot. Josh Allen is a questionable QB2, more of a lottery ticket than a starter.
• Outlook: Seems solid but unspectacular. Playoffs for sure, 4th or 5th place.

4. Matt

• Strengths: QB, I think
• Weaknesses: RB depth, WR
• Apologies to Matt, but I dislike this squad. Mayfield is fine, but overhyped I think. Trubisky is a potential sleeper, but he also might just be bad. Kamara is the worst of the top RBs, because his value depends on being great and not valoume, which can disappear quickly. Derrick Henry is flatly not a RB starter. I personally don't like Hill, Diggs, or Kupp (obvious caveat: I'm often wrong). Engram is a low-end TE. Bench is full of lottery tickets who might or might not pan out, which is a good way to build a bench, really. High ceiling, low floor.
• Outlook: I think this is one of the two teams to miss the playoffs. But they play me in Week 1 so I'll probably eat this projection in a few days.

5. Fingz

• Strengths: QB, RB, TE
• Weaknesses: WR
• LeVeon Bell...I don't love him, but at the end of the second round is fine for him. Chubb/Bell should be top-helf RB duo at least. QB are very good; Cousins in particular was undervalued. Kittle is good. WRs could hold this team back. Thielen/Edelman/Jeffery isn't great even when healthy, and there's no way they all play all season. Fingz will be combing waivers for WRs all season...and hey he just picked up DK Metcalf! At least he's aware of his weaknesses.
• Outlook: I like this team, I think it is a contender. 2nd place.

6. Michael

• Strengths: TE
• Weaknesses: WR, Overall depth
• This is where I evaluate my own team and try not to be biased. I don't like how the draft unfolded after round 3. I waited too long for RB2 and RB depth, overvalued WR3 and WR depth (I think waiver guys are just as good as Ridley/Gordon), and I missed all my late QB targets. My bench is a dumpster fire. None of my backup RBs are worth a shit if the current starters on their teams remain healthy.
• Outlook: Low playoffs, possibly missed playoffs. 8th place.

7. Chris

• Strengths: QB, RB
• Weaknesses: WR, TE
• Strength at the glamour positions for sure. Rodgers/Brees plus Barkley/Cook can't be argued with. Depth is fine too. TE is just a hope-for-a-1-yard-touchdown guy, who will probably be replaced early. AJ Green could possibly help later in the season but who knows when. Robinson and Anderson should be depth, not starters. Lockett might be a steal, or his colarbone will fall off in Week 3.
• Outlook: Playoff team, maybe push for contention. Somewhere around 2nd to 4th I think.

8. Greg

• Strengths: WR + WR depth
• Weaknesses: RB1
• Please trade me a WR. Thomas/Cooper/Golladay is perhaps league-best, then Moore/Gallup on the bench is an embarrassment of riches. Goff/Rivers should be fine. David Johnson + Joe Mixon might be fine, but I think will disappoint. I don't like having to depdn on bad offenses that much. Cook could be good but has a track record of bust behavior.
• Outlook: Low playoffs, like 7th place.

9. Vitello

• Strengths: QB
• Weaknesses: WR(1), RB
• At least we know the secret to last year was the autodraft. I don't like this team. WRs are a problem: Hilton is not a WR1, Boyd might be good, but Westbrook is bench filler. Damien Williams at RB is in a timeshare. He has high upside I suppose, but also could lose his job by Week 8. Kerryon Johnson... since when have the Lions been dedicated to the run? He's overrated. The bench may as well not be there at all. Watson and Cam are good fantasy QBs who get rushing yards and score rushing TDs, but they can't carry the rest of this roster.
• Misses playoffs.

10. Rob

• Strengths: RB, WRs 1&2, TE
• Weaknesses: QB, WR depth
• Fournette/Carson have basically the same outlook: they might be top-5 RBs if they stay healthy, but the liklihood they stay healthy is small. Hopkins/Jones leading a WR corp is excellent, but I think Rob forgot we start 3 WRs. Ertz is good, could end up as TE1 this year. QBs are a problem though. On paper they should be fine, but Big Ben lost his best receiver Kyler Murray is a rookie behind a terrible line. We can hope but we can't expect too much from either of them. Not sure why Golden Tate was drafted.
• Outlook: Middle of the pack. 5th place.