Boz Cup XVIII Season Preview

Remember this old blog? Reuse, repurpose, and recycle!

Boz Cup XVIII draft is complete. Here is the season outlook, in the order of how yahoo ranks our drafts.

After going through these, I realized that I have a bunch of 2nd-4th place finishers, but no favorite. Should make for an exciting season! Also, I clearly don't know what the fuck I'm talking about so take all this with a heap of salt.

1. Paul

• Strengths: RB (maybe?), WR1
• Weaknesses: TE, WR3
• Paul took the Zeke Elliott risk, which based on reports could turn into a steal if he is available Week 1. Elliott/Jones backed up by Jacobs/Lindsay is formidable and deep. Beckham is great at WR, but AB is a wildcard. QB should be fine. Just fine. Vance McDonald is another high-variance player: might be great, could be bad.
• Outlook: Playoff team, but not a contender. 3rd or 4th place.

2. Shane

• Strengths: QB, RB (maybe?)
• Weaknesses: TE, WR depth
• Shane took the Melvin Gordon risk, which is looking riskier than the Zeke flyer, but came at less cost. Gurley/Gordon is about as risky as it gets, because Gurley might be highly limited and we just don't know it yet. Mahomes/Jackson is the best QB combo. Smith-Schuster might be a one-man WR corp, but starting Corey Davis feels icky. Walker might be fine but is old and on the Titans, so likely not fine.
• Outlook: Sooo dependent on Gurley/Gordon, the outlook is entirely tied to them, so very hard to predict. My guess is that Gurley is good early but fades, meanwhile Gordon misses weeks but then signs late, and they don't overlap. Low playoff team, in the 6th place range.

3. Wendell

• Strengths: RB, WR
• Weaknesses QB2, TE
• The defending champ picked at the late turn, and stockpiled RB/WRs. RBs should be fine, although Freeman's health and workload is a questionmark. Tying WR3 and TE to Tampa Bay has pros and cons: they suck, but they will be behind a lot and therefore throw a lot. Josh Allen is a questionable QB2, more of a lottery ticket than a starter.
• Outlook: Seems solid but unspectacular. Playoffs for sure, 4th or 5th place.

4. Matt

• Strengths: QB, I think
• Weaknesses: RB depth, WR
• Apologies to Matt, but I dislike this squad. Mayfield is fine, but overhyped I think. Trubisky is a potential sleeper, but he also might just be bad. Kamara is the worst of the top RBs, because his value depends on being great and not valoume, which can disappear quickly. Derrick Henry is flatly not a RB starter. I personally don't like Hill, Diggs, or Kupp (obvious caveat: I'm often wrong). Engram is a low-end TE. Bench is full of lottery tickets who might or might not pan out, which is a good way to build a bench, really. High ceiling, low floor.
• Outlook: I think this is one of the two teams to miss the playoffs. But they play me in Week 1 so I'll probably eat this projection in a few days.

5. Fingz

• Strengths: QB, RB, TE
• Weaknesses: WR
• LeVeon Bell...I don't love him, but at the end of the second round is fine for him. Chubb/Bell should be top-helf RB duo at least. QB are very good; Cousins in particular was undervalued. Kittle is good. WRs could hold this team back. Thielen/Edelman/Jeffery isn't great even when healthy, and there's no way they all play all season. Fingz will be combing waivers for WRs all season...and hey he just picked up DK Metcalf! At least he's aware of his weaknesses.
• Outlook: I like this team, I think it is a contender. 2nd place.

6. Michael

• Strengths: TE
• Weaknesses: WR, Overall depth
• This is where I evaluate my own team and try not to be biased. I don't like how the draft unfolded after round 3. I waited too long for RB2 and RB depth, overvalued WR3 and WR depth (I think waiver guys are just as good as Ridley/Gordon), and I missed all my late QB targets. My bench is a dumpster fire. None of my backup RBs are worth a shit if the current starters on their teams remain healthy.
• Outlook: Low playoffs, possibly missed playoffs. 8th place.

7. Chris

• Strengths: QB, RB
• Weaknesses: WR, TE
• Strength at the glamour positions for sure. Rodgers/Brees plus Barkley/Cook can't be argued with. Depth is fine too. TE is just a hope-for-a-1-yard-touchdown guy, who will probably be replaced early. AJ Green could possibly help later in the season but who knows when. Robinson and Anderson should be depth, not starters. Lockett might be a steal, or his colarbone will fall off in Week 3.
• Outlook: Playoff team, maybe push for contention. Somewhere around 2nd to 4th I think.

8. Greg

• Strengths: WR + WR depth
• Weaknesses: RB1
• Please trade me a WR. Thomas/Cooper/Golladay is perhaps league-best, then Moore/Gallup on the bench is an embarrassment of riches. Goff/Rivers should be fine. David Johnson + Joe Mixon might be fine, but I think will disappoint. I don't like having to depdn on bad offenses that much. Cook could be good but has a track record of bust behavior.
• Outlook: Low playoffs, like 7th place.

9. Vitello

• Strengths: QB
• Weaknesses: WR(1), RB
• At least we know the secret to last year was the autodraft. I don't like this team. WRs are a problem: Hilton is not a WR1, Boyd might be good, but Westbrook is bench filler. Damien Williams at RB is in a timeshare. He has high upside I suppose, but also could lose his job by Week 8. Kerryon Johnson... since when have the Lions been dedicated to the run? He's overrated. The bench may as well not be there at all. Watson and Cam are good fantasy QBs who get rushing yards and score rushing TDs, but they can't carry the rest of this roster.
• Misses playoffs.

10. Rob

• Strengths: RB, WRs 1&2, TE
• Weaknesses: QB, WR depth
• Fournette/Carson have basically the same outlook: they might be top-5 RBs if they stay healthy, but the liklihood they stay healthy is small. Hopkins/Jones leading a WR corp is excellent, but I think Rob forgot we start 3 WRs. Ertz is good, could end up as TE1 this year. QBs are a problem though. On paper they should be fine, but Big Ben lost his best receiver Kyler Murray is a rookie behind a terrible line. We can hope but we can't expect too much from either of them. Not sure why Golden Tate was drafted.
• Outlook: Middle of the pack. 5th place.