Box Cup XVIII Week 4 MNF Preview

So tonight's MNF game, Bengals at Steelers, includes a surprising number of players spread across all the teams which will affect the winners this week. It's a pivotal game so I figured I'd use it as an excuse to send a season update and MNF preview.

Quick reminder: Since moving to the 13-game regular season, the #1 seed winners have been 9-4 and 11-2. So a good target to get the #1 seed is 10-3, which means that having two losses after Week 4 is a problem. 3 losses after Week 5, and you are fighting for the playoffs instead of a regular season title.

The Games:

Paul (2-0-1) vs Greg (2-1)
Score: Paul 109.26, Greg 112.66
Odds: Greg 69% favorite.
Remaining players: Paul: John Ross, Greg: Joe Mixon.
Outlook: Paul deserves some karmic penalty for that blasphemous tie. Maybe he'll get it here. He's been carried by the New England defense, which isn't sustainable. He has scored the most points in the league thus far, but a silly 61 of them have been from NE's D, with 25 more this week. His WRs pooped the bed this week, and only crablegs enthusiast Jameis Winston performed well among his players. Even if he takes an L though, he still looks poised to contend for the #1 seed. Greg looks less like a #1 seed contender. His total points is middling, and his roster is thin with holes. A win here is probably necessary for Greg to maintain contention, because he's can't fall 1.5 (fuck that tie, Paul) games behind Paul's roster and expect to catch up.

Michael (2-1) vs Vitello (0-3)
Score: Michael 119.00, JV 98.53
Odds: Michael 71% favorite.
Remaining players: Michael: None, JV: Tyler Boyd.
Outlook: Josh is probably already out of the #1 seed running. If he loses, he'll be battling just to make the playoffs the rest of the way. His roster is a disaster. Every single member of his bench has an O next to his name. Michael has the second-most points scored thus far, and a win here solidifies him as a #1 seed contender. WR is a problem and he only has one starting RB on his whole roster, but there's enough to work with to make a run. But he can't lose to a winless team and expect to contend, and this week has cut it far too close.

Shane (2-1) vs Fingz (0-2-1)
Score: Fingz 102.40, Shane 96.63
Odds: Shane 71% favorite.
Remaining players: Fingz: None, Shane: Juju Smith-Schuster.
Outlook: Fingz is in danger of slipping away. He was lucky to get a tie off of Paul in Week 1 (damn both of you). His roster outside of RBs Bell/Chubb is pretty awful. Shane looks like a contender, especially if Gurley can stay healthy. He needs WR help, but Mahomes/Jackson can be a devastating QB combo.

Matt (2-1) vs Chris (1-2)
Score: Chris 110.07, Matt 96.90
Odds: Chris 84% favorite.
Remaining players: Chris: None, Matt: Pittsburgh D.
Outlook: Chris is enduring his annual injuries (Brees, Barkley), but a win here could keep him afloat. If he can just make the playoffs, he'd have a monster roster with AJ Green mixed in as well. His WRs will make it tough to get there though. Matt has his own injury problems, but a worse roster than Chris. He's a Luck Index darling, Chris is traditionally a Luck Index casualty, but maybe this time around will offer some payback. Feels like these teams' records should be reversed, and Chris winning is the just outcome.

Rob (2-1) vs Wendell (1-2)
Score: Robb 111.66, Wendell 105.53
Odds: Wendell 75% favorite.
Remaining players: Rob: None, Wendell: James Conner.
Outlook: James Connor should get 7 points, right? That would be a rough result for Rob, essentially beaten by Chris Godwin singlehandedly. Rob has the most RB depth in the league, but losing Austin Ekeler because Melvin Gordon returned is going to be a blow. I still think Rob is a contender for the #1 seed, even if he takes a second loss here, but he'd have to win out or get lucky. He has the talent and depth to do it. Wendell is probably a middle-of-the-pack finisher, so he needs this win mainly to stay well above the playoff cut line. I don't see the talent to push into the contenders, especially already having two losses.

Boz Cup XVIII Season Preview

Remember this old blog? Reuse, repurpose, and recycle!

Boz Cup XVIII draft is complete. Here is the season outlook, in the order of how yahoo ranks our drafts.

After going through these, I realized that I have a bunch of 2nd-4th place finishers, but no favorite. Should make for an exciting season! Also, I clearly don't know what the fuck I'm talking about so take all this with a heap of salt.

1. Paul

• Strengths: RB (maybe?), WR1
• Weaknesses: TE, WR3
• Paul took the Zeke Elliott risk, which based on reports could turn into a steal if he is available Week 1. Elliott/Jones backed up by Jacobs/Lindsay is formidable and deep. Beckham is great at WR, but AB is a wildcard. QB should be fine. Just fine. Vance McDonald is another high-variance player: might be great, could be bad.
• Outlook: Playoff team, but not a contender. 3rd or 4th place.

2. Shane

• Strengths: QB, RB (maybe?)
• Weaknesses: TE, WR depth
• Shane took the Melvin Gordon risk, which is looking riskier than the Zeke flyer, but came at less cost. Gurley/Gordon is about as risky as it gets, because Gurley might be highly limited and we just don't know it yet. Mahomes/Jackson is the best QB combo. Smith-Schuster might be a one-man WR corp, but starting Corey Davis feels icky. Walker might be fine but is old and on the Titans, so likely not fine.
• Outlook: Sooo dependent on Gurley/Gordon, the outlook is entirely tied to them, so very hard to predict. My guess is that Gurley is good early but fades, meanwhile Gordon misses weeks but then signs late, and they don't overlap. Low playoff team, in the 6th place range.

3. Wendell

• Strengths: RB, WR
• Weaknesses QB2, TE
• The defending champ picked at the late turn, and stockpiled RB/WRs. RBs should be fine, although Freeman's health and workload is a questionmark. Tying WR3 and TE to Tampa Bay has pros and cons: they suck, but they will be behind a lot and therefore throw a lot. Josh Allen is a questionable QB2, more of a lottery ticket than a starter.
• Outlook: Seems solid but unspectacular. Playoffs for sure, 4th or 5th place.

4. Matt

• Strengths: QB, I think
• Weaknesses: RB depth, WR
• Apologies to Matt, but I dislike this squad. Mayfield is fine, but overhyped I think. Trubisky is a potential sleeper, but he also might just be bad. Kamara is the worst of the top RBs, because his value depends on being great and not valoume, which can disappear quickly. Derrick Henry is flatly not a RB starter. I personally don't like Hill, Diggs, or Kupp (obvious caveat: I'm often wrong). Engram is a low-end TE. Bench is full of lottery tickets who might or might not pan out, which is a good way to build a bench, really. High ceiling, low floor.
• Outlook: I think this is one of the two teams to miss the playoffs. But they play me in Week 1 so I'll probably eat this projection in a few days.

5. Fingz

• Strengths: QB, RB, TE
• Weaknesses: WR
• LeVeon Bell...I don't love him, but at the end of the second round is fine for him. Chubb/Bell should be top-helf RB duo at least. QB are very good; Cousins in particular was undervalued. Kittle is good. WRs could hold this team back. Thielen/Edelman/Jeffery isn't great even when healthy, and there's no way they all play all season. Fingz will be combing waivers for WRs all season...and hey he just picked up DK Metcalf! At least he's aware of his weaknesses.
• Outlook: I like this team, I think it is a contender. 2nd place.

6. Michael

• Strengths: TE
• Weaknesses: WR, Overall depth
• This is where I evaluate my own team and try not to be biased. I don't like how the draft unfolded after round 3. I waited too long for RB2 and RB depth, overvalued WR3 and WR depth (I think waiver guys are just as good as Ridley/Gordon), and I missed all my late QB targets. My bench is a dumpster fire. None of my backup RBs are worth a shit if the current starters on their teams remain healthy.
• Outlook: Low playoffs, possibly missed playoffs. 8th place.

7. Chris

• Strengths: QB, RB
• Weaknesses: WR, TE
• Strength at the glamour positions for sure. Rodgers/Brees plus Barkley/Cook can't be argued with. Depth is fine too. TE is just a hope-for-a-1-yard-touchdown guy, who will probably be replaced early. AJ Green could possibly help later in the season but who knows when. Robinson and Anderson should be depth, not starters. Lockett might be a steal, or his colarbone will fall off in Week 3.
• Outlook: Playoff team, maybe push for contention. Somewhere around 2nd to 4th I think.

8. Greg

• Strengths: WR + WR depth
• Weaknesses: RB1
• Please trade me a WR. Thomas/Cooper/Golladay is perhaps league-best, then Moore/Gallup on the bench is an embarrassment of riches. Goff/Rivers should be fine. David Johnson + Joe Mixon might be fine, but I think will disappoint. I don't like having to depdn on bad offenses that much. Cook could be good but has a track record of bust behavior.
• Outlook: Low playoffs, like 7th place.

9. Vitello

• Strengths: QB
• Weaknesses: WR(1), RB
• At least we know the secret to last year was the autodraft. I don't like this team. WRs are a problem: Hilton is not a WR1, Boyd might be good, but Westbrook is bench filler. Damien Williams at RB is in a timeshare. He has high upside I suppose, but also could lose his job by Week 8. Kerryon Johnson... since when have the Lions been dedicated to the run? He's overrated. The bench may as well not be there at all. Watson and Cam are good fantasy QBs who get rushing yards and score rushing TDs, but they can't carry the rest of this roster.
• Misses playoffs.

10. Rob

• Strengths: RB, WRs 1&2, TE
• Weaknesses: QB, WR depth
• Fournette/Carson have basically the same outlook: they might be top-5 RBs if they stay healthy, but the liklihood they stay healthy is small. Hopkins/Jones leading a WR corp is excellent, but I think Rob forgot we start 3 WRs. Ertz is good, could end up as TE1 this year. QBs are a problem though. On paper they should be fine, but Big Ben lost his best receiver Kyler Murray is a rookie behind a terrible line. We can hope but we can't expect too much from either of them. Not sure why Golden Tate was drafted.
• Outlook: Middle of the pack. 5th place.